2010 Economic Forcast

Will 2010 be a repeat of 2009 for the Albuquerque Real Estate Market. Nationally will trends continue?

Yes, (in my opinion) 2010 will be a slow economic recovery from the Real Estate Bubble of 2007 or the late 00's if you want to consider it that way. Economic indicators to me, seem to forshadow a downturn in the market in April of 2010 possibly last week of March 2010 that may or may not prompt Congress to extend the $8,000 first time home buyers tax credit. I believe if this is extended another time buyers will get the impression that the first time home buyers tax credit will always be there and there is no real rush or incentive to buy. Tradionally while everyone waits to get the lowest possible price for a home, the bottom of this Real Estate market will already be over, usually the economic indicators are 2-3 months behind the actual market, so prices will be on the rise, but just like the stock market, and Ebay Auctions, people have a tendancy to buy on the upswing of a cycle rather than at the very bottom.

In determining exactly when the Real Estate market will turn around will be based on consumer confidence. With Unemployment at 10% and most Americans running a deep credit card debt, and the freeze up by the banks in credit this trend will probably continue. Another interesting factor is oil companies are stating that they actually have a huge supply of gas at the refineries because demand has been lower this winter. So traditionally when prices go up in the spring do to everyone being out and about, can anyone actually explain why oil is over $80 a barrel and wholesale cost has risen to about $2.15 a gallon? Just a few more snow storms keeping everyone at home in the Midwest & East Coast, the supply at the refineries should be even higher?

Although nobody wanted to listen to me before, I will state again, the real reason we had a crash in this economy was not Real Estate or Stock Market speculation, bundled derivitives, or even the cost of the war but the price of gasoline going over $3.50 a gallon. Mr & Mrs. Joe consumer now had to pay more a week at the pump, that money came from somewhere, either an increase on credit card debt, or a decrease in that cup of Starbucks Coffee, Friday night out at Applebee's or that new Dress from Macy's. As this continued, Mr & Mrs. Consumer had to stop paying either the credit cards or the mortgage payment or both, as the mortgage delinquencies pilled up, the huge Ponze scheme of bundling the mortgages and selling the debt on Wall Street was revealed. Just like any good Ponze scheme it only works if you have a constant flow of new money, or in this case home buyers. Mr. & Mrs. consumer had had enough, so Mr. Employer now laid off Mr. Consumer to make up the difference he was loosing and the unemployment rate is now at 10%.

So you are telling me I am wrong, gas prices were not the issue, it was all you rotten Real Estate Agents, and Mortgage Brokers that sold me this house for $50,000 more now than its worth! Well, I do not believe I am wrong, explain to me while even though the price of gas has come down. Large oil companies continue to make outrageous profits quarter after quarter? Yes, some Real Estate Agents and Mortgage Lenders were out their putting people in homes they could not afford, but hopefully regulatory bodies within the industry will place stop guards into this practice.

While we can all sit around and hope for the best, this year and that 2010 will pull us out of this depression (I will not call it a recession)we can all play a part in our own recovery buy paying down our own debt, buying from american products when possible, rewarding businesses with our dollars that bring jobs back and invest in America rather than export our industries and jobs overseas.

I wish you all a prosperous new year, I on the other hand am looking forward to growing my Real Estate business and meeting lots of home sellers, and excited home buyers and having a never boring adventure in Real Estate!